- 01/23/2022
- Warren Mills
- Winter of 2022
My Answers to the Questions from the Rosen Numismatic Advisory, Crystal Ball Survey
I have known Maurice Rosen for about 40 years. He is a good man that cares about the numismatic field. To me, the best dealers in the business act as good stewards for future generations of collectors. There aren’t many of these types of dealers left but Maurice is one of them.
The Rosen Numismatic Advisory is an award-winning newsletter with his most anticipated issue being the Crystal Ball Survey for the coming year. Maurice selects a panel of who he considers to be some of the leading numismatists in the country and solicits their answers to select questions and I am honored to be chosen. It is closing in on about 20 times that I have been selected to participate in this prestigious issue.
Due to brevity and space considerations, Maurice selects only parts of an answer for the survey response. The following represents my unedited answers to each question. Maurice was kind enough to give me permission to print my answers exclusively for the Rare Coin Enthusiast. Please find subscription information to the Rosen Advisory below.
1. What is you outlook for the coin market in 2022/2023?
Good times are coming for hard assets. It won’t be a really hot market, but an active one. As people become more aware of world economies and world currencies weakening, they will look for alternatives for protection. Hard assets and cryptos should do very well. My guess is that people are shocked to hear about supply disruptions and massive bailout and trillions upon trillions of dollars being created out of thin air and given away with no thought of repercussions. No concerns of paying anything back, just line up and get money. There will be consequences. Our industry will be one of the beneficiaries, but I feel bullion and crypto will receive the lion’s share of interest. However, the coin market will also do very well. New buyers will need a bit of education, but coins will make sense for diversity.
2. Auctions: Participation has change greatly in recent years. Time was when dealers dominated the auctions. Now, collectors do mostly online, as show attendance has waned. Also, more of the better/rarer coins are being consigned to auction rather than offered via other means. A) What does all this portend for the future? B) How can collectors, investors benefit from this trend? C) Are there now any new strategies or techniques that bidders and consignors should be using to maximize their success at auction?
A. The trend will continue. There is more confidence for affluent people to buy coins in auctions now than ever before. Six and seven figure coins now are being purchased without consulting any auction reps for their expertise. PCGS, NGC and CAC have given novice buyers a way of determining value to a large extent. Minimal research can be done with a push of a button to access pricing data and auction prices realized. Both small collectors and large investors are getting more savvy. However, dealer experience is still important.
B. By exercising due diligence and researching values. It used to be that some affluent buyers would pay a consulting fee to a dealer for representation. Now you can talk with your trusted dealer and do it on your own!
C. Yes. If you’re not using auction prices realized, start now, and don’t just look at the prices realized. Pull up coin scans and do some comparisons to similar coins. Some uglies including ugly CAC pieces, can go for less than an eye appealing example without even a CAC sticker. The sleeves should still be rolled up and extra steps taken to make sure the buyer is getting real value for the money. It is still wise to consult with a dealer for their expertise. Many have the ability to dig deep and that extra information is valuable. As an example, a dealer may find that a coin you want to bid on was in an MS-66 holder and is now an MS-67+ but a spot was removed. Also, dealers still do a large amount of buying coins that they feel may upgrade out of auctions. They may resubmit it five times; if doesn’t work then it is reauctioned. Watch out because the coin grade is maxed out and could sell for a lot less than previously. You don’t want to be chasing a coin against more knowledgeable buyers and find you paid way too much because you were filling a void in your collections, while under-bidders were chasing a potential upgrade that may never work. Keep your cards close to the vest. Watch out for reserves that are set very high or dealer shill bidders. A good auction representative can protect your interests. Also, leave your ego of “I have to have it” out of the equation. Ego buying can be a killer.
Also, the big 800-pound gorilla in the auction business is now having more competition. Look at the inroads of Great Collections. A well-informed buyer can now use his information to buy from any auction house or dealer.
3. A) What other changes occurred this year that have had the biggest impact on the business and the market? B) What do those changes portend for the future? C) How can collectors best position themselves to adjust to and take advantage of those changes?
A. Covid has had a large effect. People have more time for research and a better-informed buyer is now in the market. Anti-counterfeiting devices on slab holders and even bullion coins are instilling more confidence. Technology in general is important for all industries. If you can keep up with technology, you are going to be ahead of the curve. New Apps are also available to assist buyers.
B. A more confident buyer. This can also be a negative. There is no substitute for experience in the market-place.
C. I still believe in aligning yourself with an honest dealer that has been in the trenches for decades. The older pitfalls of over-grading and altered surfaces are still out there. However, keep up with new technology. An experienced dealer can look at older holdered coins and long-ago CAC stickered coins and keep you away from those that have manifested PVC or putty.
4. PCGS and NGC have each been sold to large investor organizations. A) Do you see any changes in their operations now or developing in the future to impact the coin business? B) What impact might such changes have for the market and collector/investor participation?
A. I don’t see any operational changes, but they will continue to advance technologically with new apps, holders, etc. Now, coins are just a small part of their product line. My thoughts are that the market is ripe for a new coin grading service to enter the market. One that is operated by true numismatists that love the coin business.
B. If a new service enters the market, this will be huge! For years, inconsistency with grading has diluted pricing. Over-grading and altered surface coins have always been a worry. CAC has shown that more consistent grading is wanted in our industry. Compare the prices between CAC and non-CAC coins. A new service would need to have an experience group of numismatists that not only grade coins but have knowledge of many series of coins. CAC has always been inconsistent with circulated type, and circ type in all series. A new service needs people either on staff or as consultants that know copper, nickel, silver and gold coins by date and mint characteristics. It won’t be easy, but I feel a new service that consistently grades will hold value and lead to increases in prices for both collectors and investors. That’s a welcome change. Instead of training novices to grade, real numismatists with years of experience are grading coins again. PCGS and NGC have done a tremendous job, but the market is ripe for a change. If this happens, PCGS and NGC may be relegated to grading modern and world issues. If market acceptance is there, many collectors and investors may need to have or want to have classic coins regraded by the new service.
5. The numismatic print media has been undergoing many changes. For us, that includes trade publications and auction catalogs. How do you see this trend playing out?
Not my area of expertise.
6. Fantasy Question: You’re the Czar of the industry. You say the work and it’s done. A) What changes would you decree and why? B) What effects would you want accomplished?
A. First, more consistent grading. Second, all over-graded and altered surface problem coins must be re-graded to the new consistent grading standard.
B. Buyers would have a better handle on grading and the continual dilution of the product due to over-grading would stop! For decades now, over-graded coins have increased in population to the point where prices continue to soften. A strict grading standard will actually show how rare certain issues really are and lead to price increases across the board; imagine that!
7. It’s hard to deny that bigger government and less privacy are in our future. The proposal to monitor bank accounts is but one manifestation of this trend. How do you see this impacting the coin market, dealers and collectors?
For decades now, younger generations have given away more and more privacy. Look at everything that’s posted on social media. They do not value privacy at all. However, the old guard is appalled. It’s mainly the old guard that has the most discretionary income too. I see all areas and purchases of coins benefitting in the future. Both collectors and investors could see great times ahead. That’s also the reason why I feel we need a new grading service. Tighten up the grading standard so people make money. Dealers are going to be busy and happy. The right to privacy is still important to those who are well informed.
8. What are your Best Buys in U.S. Type Coins?
18th century. I like all original strictly graded coins even low circulated to the highest unc grades. However, about two-thirds of the swill in holders now should be no grades or details graded! Please God, a new grading service. Keep in mind too, CAC is weak at circ type. The current graders are conditioned to varied unc and proof grades. My guess is that one quarter of the early circ type that is CAC’ed shouldn’t be.
Nineteenth century, I really like almost all denomination of Seated coinage but especially quarters to dollars from VF to high Uncirculated. Original circ issues and unc coinage, as eye-appealing as possible, and not too washed or over-dipped. A light rinse can actually add to the desirability of these coins, but I prefer attractive original pieces. I have seen CAC proof coins start to react to dip in the holders so be careful! This can also happen with high grade uncs if not neutralized properly. And don’t read this with a pie in the sky attitude that all CAC coins are original. I wish it were so. That’s how PCGS and NGC grading got to where it is now. I hope a new service is more aware of how important original surfaces are. Any unattractive original coins should be graded but it’s a fine line; they need to be graded lower! The surfaces underneath an unattractive toned coin may be decent so it will always be dipped if the surfaces are clean.
9. What are your Best Buys in U.S. Gold?
Beat my dead horse. Original 18th century are coins to behold and own in early gold and most denominations and series.
I also like all early gold through the classic head series and many no motto issues. Most slabbed pieces are cleaned. An underrated area of early gold I like is from the San Francisco Mint. The economy in California was always pretty strong and most issues up thru the mid-1870’s to me may be undervalued. Coins were quickly released into circulation and a little auction research could lead to undervalued rarities. Some dates in many series have mint state pops of only a handful of pieces.
10. What are you Best Buys in the Morgan and Peace Dollar series?
I like the Peace Dollar series more for undervalued pieces than the Morgans. The depth of buyers in the Morgan series has led to over exposure and there really are very few sleepers. Most of your S-mint Peace Dollars are undervalued except for the 1934-S. Coins graded MS-64 to MS-65 are great buys. However, watch out for CAC coins that have underlying PVC. Putty on gold and PVC are real problems. Some CAC gold coins exhibit them and so do nice Peace Dollars. Examine them closely. I don’t think CAC graders know how to focus on the important attributes by date on any Peace Dollars. They may be inclined not to CAC a coin because of strike when that’s how they come. This lack of education hurts knowledgeable buyers. CAC needs more graders who have experience in different series. However, they do a great job. I prefer all my recommendations valued over a few hundred dollars in all series to be CAC or graded by a new service if one comes about.
11. What are your Best Buys in U.S. Silver and Gold Commemoratives?
Gold commemoratives are fairly common relatively speaking but they have been slain like a dragon in the last 20 years. Focus on the entire series in MS-64 to MS-67 CAC only. Silver commemoratives have also been destroyed due to commercial grading. Most MS-65’s are really MS-63’s, are washed out coins and should be melted for slag! Here is a series where over-grading wiped out the collectors. A nice original CAC 50-piece set would be a good acquisition now. Get the scarcer ones early.
12. What are your Best Buys in any other area of your choosing?
I apologize for singing my song but focus on nice original coins with good eye appeal in the series you enjoy. Diversity is important so to specialize in only one or two series makes you a speculator. If you must focus on one or two series, align yourself with professionals that have been in the trenches for years, and have experience in the series you like.
13. What are you Best Buys for the long-terms silver and gold bullion investor?
Junk silver is too small to counterfeit. This area will benefit collectors and investors in two ways. The premium over melt will continue to grow and the price of silver will rise. Counterfeit bars and rounds are going to continue to be a trap for silver buyers. American Eagles due to the tight buy sell spreads and no dealer reporting requirements when you sell. Ten-dollar Liberty coins in MS-61 to MS-63 have a small premium over melt and this premium should grow as gold moves up. Watch out for AU’s in unc holders and PVC and Putty on PCGS and NGC coins. Be selective in all coin purchases no matter what you buy.
14. What are your favorite picks for coins priced under $1000 for the long-term?
I love Seated Dollars in wholesome VF-XF original CAC pieces. Trade Dollars in XF-AU, same criteria. I see no downside risk and these coins are always in demand.
15. What are your favorite picks for coins priced over $25,000 for the long-term?
Nice 18th century issues in gold is a tough area to find untampered with. CAC also makes allowances on these coins so be picky. If a new grading service does come about, you want coins that will cross-over.
16. Please complete the Survey by freewheeling on any topic(s) of your choice.
One of the best things that ever happened to the coin business is certification. Competition for grading fees led to over-grading and price dilution.
Then CAC came along. Great concept and much needed for the coin industry. All knowledgeable buyers recognized early on that there were coins that were high end for the grade, solid for the grade and low end. For a firm to come out and take the steps necessary to have buyers focus on solid for the grade coins could save our industry.
If a new grading service enters the market that is well received, we could be in for a boom in the coin industry. However, good marketing to gain acceptance in our industry may be tricky, time consuming, and a very expensive endeavor. However, I hope it happens.
Subscription Information:
Maurice Rosen
Numismatic Counseling, Inc.
P.O. Box 35
Plainville, NY 11803
Ph: 516-433-5800
Email: MauriceRosen@aol.com
I want to thank Maurice and also ask that if any or our Enthusiast readers have any questions to feel free to call or email me.
Thank you,
Warren